The impact of extreme climate events on mountain glacier evolution

Background

Extreme climate phenomena such as heat waves, dry events, and heavy precipitation are expected to increase in many mountain regions of the world. These effects are currently not represented in projections of glacier evolution, however, and are a key source of uncertainty. This project will develop new understanding of what drives seasonal and interannual variability in extreme events, focussing specifically on areas of high relief, and the extent to which such events may change in frequency and magnitude in coming decades. It will then seek to quantify the effect of these events on mountain glaciers in a range of climatic settings, characterising the propagation of uncertainties in both sets of models using multiple simulations of future glacier mass balance. The final step will be to effectively communicate the range of likely outcomes to decision makers preparing for an increasingly unpredictable climate.

PhD opportunity

This research could focus on questions about the drivers of extreme events in mountainous settings, how they are represented in a hierarchy of climate models, the bias corrections that are needed to make those models useful, and/or recommendations for improving existing models based on in-situ data that are available from a range of mountain settings. The student would develop understanding of numerical modelling and handling of large datasets, plus coding if the intention is to generate new modelling outputs. Depending on the candidate’s preferences and skills, there could be an equally strong focus on the glacier modelling component, assessing the extent to which discrete events impact on glacier mass balance (using for example the 2022 European heat wave as validation for the modelling outputs), and whether this effect is sustained sufficiently to change the trajectory of glacier mass loss compared to existing projections. This element would also involve developing understanding of numerical modelling approaches, remote sensing, coding, and/or data handling. There will also be opportunities for fieldwork, funding dependent, for the candidate to be able to collect some primary data in support of their climatological and/or glaciological analyses, if that suits their interests.

Other information

Applicant profile: We would welcome applications from students from a broad range of backgrounds, but primarily those with interests in environmental science, and ideally with experience/knowledge of climatology and/or glaciology and their interaction. Students with a strong quantitative background are particularly encouraged to apply, as are those with a passion for the mountains and the people that inhabit those landscapes.

• Pepin, N. C., et al. “Climate changes and their elevational patterns in the mountains of the world.” Reviews of Geophysics 60.1 (2022): e2020RG000730.