African heatwaves in a warmer world: risks, impacts and adaptation

Background

Even if global warming is limited to 2°C, human exposure to dangerous heat stress in the tropics is projected to increase by 50–100%, escalating heat-related mortality and the risks associated with outdoor work.

Heatwaves in sub-Saharan West Africa occur regularly, however, the impacts are almost completely unquantified and unreported. There are large uncertainties in the future impact of heat stress due to unknowns in behavioural response, infrastructure resilience, and health system capacity. It is not even clear how to best define heat events to quantify the societal risks, and indeed which risks are most significant.

Future projections of extreme heat are also uncertain due to low confidence in future greenhouse gas emissions, imperfect climate models, local effects such as the urban heat island and the role of compound extremes (e.g. heat + drought).

Improved information, communicated effectively, will allow for better decision-making.

PhD Opportunity

The project will involve:
• Quantifying uncertainties in climate projections of future hot-dry and hot-humid extremes across sub-Saharan West Africa using observations and climate models.
• Running co-creation workshops with communities in selected case study regions (e.g. communities in UNESCO biosphere reserves, local branches of Red Cross and Red Crescent National Societies) to understand the socio-economic and health impacts of heat, and to identify impact-relevant metrics.
• Quantifying the risks of heat to society by combining climate data with quantitative + qualitative socio-economic outdoor labour and health information.
• Considering uncertainties and challenges in the behavioural response to adaptation measures such as early warning.
• Liaising with local communities, weather services and government to improve resilience to heat.
Outputs will include:
• Methods and tools to understand the risk and uncertainties of future heat extremes to societies in sub-tropical and tropical regions. Sub-Saharan West Africa will be used as a contextual example, but the research will be globally relevant.
• Recommendations for preparedness and adaptation measures (behavioural change, early warning, education etc).
• Storylines to communicate a range of plausible future extreme heat scenarios and their impact, aimed at communities and the national/regional scale for policy.
• High-quality papers in the peer reviewed academic literature.
The project offers training in physical climate science, the quantification of climate risk, social science methodologies (interviews, surveys), and the chance to ultimately improve society’s resilience to heat.
You will be supervised by experts in climate extremes and adaptation science from the University of Leeds. The Met Office will provide decision-relevant climate information to countries in Africa. The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre will provide local knowledge and contacts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Applicant Profile

This PhD project area is suitable for students with quantitative skills from an undergraduate degree in mathematics, statistics, physics, engineering, physical geography, environmental science, or similar. The student should also have an interest and ability to engage with the project partners and to learn relevant qualitative skills within risk, decision, and adaptation science.

Other information

Birch CE, Jackson LS, Finney DL, Marsham JM, Stratton RA, Tucker S, Senior CA, Keane RJ, Guichard F, Kendon EJ. 2022. Future changes in heatwaves over Africa at the convection-permitting scale. Journal of Climate. 5981-6006 35.18 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/18/JCLI-D-21-0790.1.xml

Dasgupta, S, Robinson, EJZ, Shayegh, S. et al. (2024) Heat stress and the labour force. Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 859–872. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00606-1

Harrington LJ, Otto FEL. (2020) Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves. Nat Clim Change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0851-8

Jack, CD, Jones, R, Burgin, L, & Daron, J. (2020). Climate risk narratives: An iterative reflective process for co-producing and integrating climate knowledge. Climate Risk Management, 29, 100239. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100239

Jack et al. (2025) Climate risk storylines: Navigating the uncertainties of climate change Guidelines for humanitarian practitioners https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/Red-Cross-Red-Crescent-Climate-Impact-Storylines.pdf

Jackson, LS, Birch CE, Chagnaud G, Marsham JH, Taylor CM: Humid heatwaves are controlled by daily rainfall variability, Nat. Comms, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58694-6