Climate change adaptation targets and indicators under uncertainty
Background
Climate change impacts are accelerating across the world making climate adaptation an urgent priority now and in the near to mid-term. Adaptation actions can minimise the negative consequences of a changing climate in different sectors and places.
While climate mitigation targets have been agreed at global (Paris Agreement), national (UK Climate Change Act) and regional/local levels, there are still few sector-specific examples of climate adaptation targets.
At the global level, the 2015 Paris Agreement established the global goal on adaptation and in 2023 the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience was adopted proposing sectoral and adaptation cycle targets. In 2025, the Belém Adaptation Indicators were adopted to inform national approaches to tracking adaptation action and progress.
The UK Government is investigating the feasibility of stronger objectives on climate adaptation and resilience which support work across government and the wider economy up to and beyond the next National Adaptation Programme (NAP4; to be published in 2028). Both the Climate Change Committee (CCC) and The Office for Environmental Protection (The OEP) have consistently recommended the improvement of climate adaptation objectives and targets that are measurable, sector-specific and timebound.
Adaptation targets – achieved through metrics to assess the effectiveness of an adaptation action or policy – have the potential to improve the national approach to climate resilience. Despite this potential, the development and delivery of adaptation targets has been challenging because adaptation is context-specific and there is often a lack of clarity over how metrics should be designed.
Furthermore, there are multiple dimensions of uncertainty in this topic. There is uncertainty about: the future – associated with uncertain climate and socio-economic change, the main determinants of climate risk (a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability); the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and the development and agreement of adaptation targets.
PhD Opportunity
This project will integrate climate and decision sciences to operationalise science-based climate adaptation targets and demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptation strategies under climate and socio-economic uncertainty. Two case studies are expected to be developed in the areas of environment and energy with UNRISK project partners: The Office for Environmental Protection and Ofgem. The OEP’s mission is to protect and improve the environment by holding government and other public authorities to account (in England and Northern Ireland; and across the UK for reserved matter). Ofgem (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) is the energy regulator for Great Britain.
The project will involve:
1.Developing climate adaptation targets
- Expert elicitation of potential climate adaptation targets at the national and regional level in two contexts: environment and energy
- Co-development of climate adaptation targets at the national and regional level through public dialogues in two contexts: environment and energy
2.Connecting climate adaptation targets with measurable indicators within a climate risk and uncertainty framework
3.Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation strategies against targets under climate and socio-economic uncertainty, using scenarios, storylines and other tools.
Applicant Profile
We welcome applicants from a wide range of disciplines across the physical and social sciences, as well as engineering. Candidate will require motivation to work across disciplinary boundaries.
Strong quantitative skills are essential, as the project involves development of adaptation targets, indicators and associated modelling. While prior experience in every area is not required—training will be provided—applicants should demonstrate confidence in handling data and problem-solving.
Equally important is a willingness to engage with social and decision sciences to conduct public dialogues. Strong communication skills, critical thinking, and openness to reflective and collaborative work will be highly valued.
Other information
Yule et al. (2025) The opportunities and challenges of developing and implementing local climate adaptation targets. PLOS Climate 4(5): e0000634.
Public Dialogue on Climate Adaptation
Research to develop indicators that monitor adaptation: APR25 (ADAS)
Progress in adapting to climate change: 2025 report to Parliament
Environmental Improvement Plan (EIP) 2025
