Inclusive storylines for sustainable governance of urban adaptation to uncertainties in future heat extremes

Extreme heat is one of the most certain impacts of climate change, yet there are still many remaining uncertainties both in the nature of future extremes and in social and technological opportunities for adaptation. Where scientific climate information meets real-world urban decision making, it becomes clear that simply stating the likely climatic outcome is not necessarily a constructive contribution. Different forms of information based on climate model output can more effectively support inclusive decision processes for robust and effective urban adaptation.

Urban system change is an anticipatory governance challenge (Ghosh, 2019). Recent inter- and trans-disciplinary projects have emphasised the role of evidence-based climate storylines in managing uncertainty and actively promoting change (Arora and Stirling, 2023). Plural climate storylines (Rusca et al., 2024) represent constructive engagement between physical climate science and the needs of diverse stakeholders.

In the past five years, extreme heat has affected urban infrastructure through pressures on water, transport, energy and health systems. These systems are also shifting in response to and in anticipation of further shocks. Anticipation implies uncertainty, and requires nuanced understanding of the contributors to uncertainties in order to manage them effectively. Looking at a small number of cities for detailed case studies, you will analyse climate model data and projections along with data about urban adaptation and planning, to assess how urban heat events are currently affecting change in multiple systems with a specific focus on the impact of uncertainties (including attribution and projection uncertainty) on anticipatory governance decisions. With these uncertainties in mind, you will then look at the provision of inclusive and resilient urban infrastructures (Ghosh et al., 2019) and construct evidence-based tools to support decision-making under uncertainty. In addition to modelling various scenarios of climate and social risks of urban heat on infrastructure, you will investigate principles for designing robust and inclusive policies, by developing the concept of plural climate storylines (Rusca et al., 2024). This project brings technical and policy strands together to understand how climate uncertainties can be managed , how systems need to change and innovate in anticipation of uncertain heat events in cities, and will also prioritise feedback to climate information providers to shape relevant products.

At the end of this project, you will have developed a rare combination of high-level quantitative skills, expertise in physical climate, and sensitivity to governance contexts. You would be well prepared for a career in infrastructure governance or climate/development finance, in national governments, NGOs or global institutions.